Carmignac P. Credit: Letter from the Fund Managers
Carmignac Portfolio Credit was up +5.63% during Q4 2023, versus +5.54% for its reference indicator1. Since the beginning of the year, the fund is up +10.58% vs. +9.00% for its reference indicator, outperforming by +1.58%.
Review of 2023 performance
This strong performance and outperformance is a function of the high carry of the fund at the beginning of the year – the gross yield of the portfolio was then in excess of 9%, for an average rating of BB+, combined with a rally in credit markets in the last weeks of the year.
All our performance engines on the long side contributed strongly to the fund’s return, with emerging markets high yield bonds and structured credit instruments being the largest contributors. Our CLO (“Collateralized loan obligation”) tranches in particular performed extremely well thanks to their floating rates, high carry and a robust price action at the end of the year. The return was achieved with a high level of diversification (more than 250 positions and 150 different issuers), limiting the potential impact of isolated credit accidents and keeping the fund very liquid. As we enter 2024, we are excited by the prospects for future performance for the fund.
Outlook
Of course, there is not as much value in broad credit markets as there was twelve months ago, following an historic bear market in 2022. We have adjusted our risk exposure in consequence and have been lately increasing our hedging.
Yet, we think the opportunity set remains very attractive for flexible and analytically minded credit investors. Our bread and butter has always been complex situations that either require a lot of analytical work to build conviction and/or fall between the cracks of the mandates of indexed investors. In the past, even in years of financial repression and negative interest rates, when credit markets were infested with “tourists” desperately searching for a modicum of income, we managed to assemble portfolios with strong risk adjusted returns. The outlook for what we do is much brighter now than it was then and we suspect it will remain so. Indeed, even if risk-free rates have rallied recently, they remain well into positive territory. As investors can now earn a positive return on short term government bonds, they are asking for a decent remuneration to fund good quality, established companies and they need some serious enticement to venture even one step outside their comfort zone. This keeps the complexity premia that power the performance of the fund at very attractive level in absolute as well as in relation to the average level of credit indices.
In particular, the opportunity set in special situations and distressed debt looks very promising. The financial repression of the past decade spawned a cohort of companies with balance sheets only sustainable in a world where a low single B credit with more than 6x ND/EBITDA leverage and declining profitability had windows every couple of years to refinance at 5% - or less. This is not the case anymore and these businesses and associated balance sheets are going to start coming to terms with the changed landscape. Our team has a strong background in this area. It has contributed nicely to the historical performance of the fund and we think it could contribute to a much higher extent in the future, as this the one area of the credit markets where experienced investors can achieve high double digit returns.
As of this writing, the portfolio has a yield just shy of 7% with a net exposure close to 85% (with 2.7% of cash and 11.9% of hedges on HY indices). The opportunity set in front of us is very conducive for alpha generation and we would be disappointed if the fund does not return a mid to high single digit annualized return over the next two to three years.
Carmignac Portfolio Credit
Access the entire credit spectrum for maximum flexibilityDiscover the fund pageCarmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc
- Recommended minimum investment horizon
- 3 years
- Risk indicator*
- 3/7
- SFDR - Fund Classification**
- Article 6
*Risk Scale from the KID (Key Information Document). Risk 1 does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. **The Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) 2019/2088 is a European regulation that requires asset managers to classify their funds as either 'Article 8' funds, which promote environmental and social characteristics, 'Article 9' funds, which make sustainable investments with measurable objectives, or 'Article 6' funds, which do not necessarily have a sustainability objective. For more information please refer to https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2019/2088/oj.
Main risks of the fund
Fees
- Entry costs
- 2,00% of the amount you pay in when entering this investment. This is the most you will be charged. Carmignac Gestion doesn't charge any entry fee. The person selling you the product will inform you of the actual charge.
- Exit costs
- We do not charge an exit fee for this product.
- Management fees and other administrative or operating costs
- 1,20% of the value of your investment per year. This estimate is based on actual costs over the past year.
- Performance fees
- 20,00% when the share class overperforms the Reference indicator during the performance period. It will be payable also in case the share class has overperformed the reference indicator but had a negative performance. Underperformance is clawed back for 5 years. The actual amount will vary depending on how well your investment performs. The aggregated cost estimation above includes the average over the last 5 years, or since the product creation if it is less than 5 years.
- Transaction Cost
- 0,43% of the value of your investment per year. This is an estimate of the costs incurred when we buy and sell the investments underlying the product. The actual amount varies depending on the quantity we buy and sell.
Annualised Performance
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | 1.8 | 1.7 | 20.9 | 10.4 | 3.0 | -13.0 | 10.6 |
| Reference Indicator | 1.1 | -1.7 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.1 | -13.3 | 9.0 |
| Carmignac Portfolio Credit | + 0.1 % | + 5.1 % | + 5.2 % |
| Reference Indicator | - 1.6 % | + 0.3 % | + 0.7 % |
Source: Carmignac at 28 Mar 2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor).
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Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/KIID, prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions. This document is intended for professional clients.
This material may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the Management Company. This material does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. This material has been provided to you for informational purposes only and may not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or interests referred to herein or for any other purposes. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
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In the United Kingdom: the Funds’ respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.co.uk, or upon request to the Management Company, or for the French Funds, at the offices of the Facilities Agent at BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES SERVICES, operating through its branch in London: 55 Moorgate, London EC2R. This document was prepared by Carmignac Gestion, Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg or Carmignac UK Ltd. FP Carmignac ICVC (the “Company”) is an Investment Company with variable capital incorporated in England and Wales under registered number 839620 and is authorised by the FCA with effect from 4 April 2019 and launched on 15 May 2019. FundRock Partners Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director (the “ACD”) of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the FCA. Registered Office: Hamilton Centre, Rodney Way, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 3BY, UK; Registered in England and Wales with number 4162989. Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA has been appointed as the Investment Manager and distributor in respect of the Company. Carmignac UK Ltd (Registered in England and Wales with number 14162894) has been appointed as a sub-Investment Manager of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN:984288.
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